2025 Matchweek 1 Review
The first results for 2025 are in and so is this newsletter's first matchweek review!
For matchweek reviews at this newsletter, I’m sure I’ll be tweaking the format but here’s a rough table of contents:
Links to game highlights, ranked by watchability, with no spoilers for people who like watching them without knowing the outcomes yet
Some statistical looks at which teams and players did well and did poorly
Storyline check-in on the topics I identified in my matchweek preview as being interesting from each game
Two quick points before we start. I’m interested in any feedback you have on what you like and what you don’t in these matchweek previews and reviews. And if you do like what you see, please share it with other fans who might also enjoy it!
Ranked Highlights
If you only have the time or inclination to watch highlights from a few games, I’m providing my non-spoiler ranking of this week’s highlights. This uses my entirely subjective aesthetics that celebrate cool-looking goals more than close games, so if you’re going in cold, you can’t be sure what you’ll get.
Note that after this section, there will be spoilers for the week’s action!
From most fun to watch to least fun to watch:
Expected Goal Leaders
The stats people lecture us that we shouldn’t draw any conclusions from single game xG and say that it’s only meaningful in the aggregate. Too bad, stats people, single game xG is fun and sports are about having fun. So which player had the most?
Expected Assist Leaders
Like all advanced stats, expected assists isn’t perfect, but it might be the best measure of creativity. No points for guessing who is at the top this week.
Team Expected Goals
Since attacking players usually get most of the glory, I wanted to have something for defenders. Alas, there’s nothing really analogous to xG and xA for doing silly rankings of defenders. The various counting stats for defense are just too silly even for silly tables like this. I thought I would borrow a page from fantasy football and rank overall team defenses, but “xG allowed by a team’s defense” is exactly the same as “xG produced by the other team’s offense”.
So…oh well. I’m just going to show you all the xG totals from most to least. At the top, you have good offenses or bad defenses, your choice. At the bottom, bad offenses or good defenses. Except the chart was too hard to read, so I just labeled it with offenses.
As time goes on in the season, some of this will settle out and we’ll get a sense for where teams really are.
Vancouver benefited from an early red card, though notably one their offense earned by putting a defender into a DOGSO situation.
Inter Miami was…Inter Miami. Pretty amazing they produced most of this down a man. Last year they greatly out-performed their xG. It’s just one game, but they “only” scored two goals on their 2.5 xG, so I’ll be keeping an eye on whether they come down to earth a bit in finishing.
CF Montreal and Orlando will be happy to be third and fourth in the league on this chart, but ultimately it will be small comfort given they both lost.
On the other side of the chart, Colorado is in a category all of its own. They and Sporting KC can point to the fact they played CCC midweek. The hangover has been a big deal in past years, but it didn’t stop Vancouver and Miami from being in the top spots.
Shutouts
I haven’t seen this idea elsewhere, but in thinking about which defenses did well, I thought I’d show the top 10 forwards (or at least players FBref categorizes as forwards) by minutes played who didn’t take a single shot. As usual, it’s left to the reader to decide whether this is the attacker being bad or the defense being good!
This week, Rafael Navarro has the dubious distinction of being the only forward in the league to play 90 minutes without taking a shot.
It’s just one game, so we’ll see if some of these guys end up showing up multiple times.
Shotstopping Leaderboard
Zach Steffen had a horrible season last year according to this statistic, but (unlike the rest of his team) he's started the 2025 regular season strong.
Kim Joon Hong made a terrible mistake on Toronto’s first goal diving for a cross along the ground and missing it entirely, but this statistic doesn’t measure that, so here at least he’s off the hook. What it does measure is his fine reaction saves on several close range shots in the second half.
C.J. dos Santos only has two career professional starts. I thought it wasn't wise for San Diego to completely cheap out on goalkeeping and just grab some backups to compete in training camp, but...so far so good!
Sean Johnson had big defensive lapses in front of him on both DC United goals so I have a hard time blaming him, but they also both seemed savable (he even got a hand to the second).
Pedro Gallese was average last season, but he’s been slightly declining each year in this statistic, so it’s not a good trend.
Game by Game Storylines
In my preview article, in addition to the matchup grids, I listed some storylines to follow for each team. Some of these will take a long time to answer (“did they fix their defense?”) and some are just about this matchweek. As the season goes, the storylines will naturally evolve. That’s the idea anyway.
It’s way too early for most of them, but let’s still take a rapid tour around the game outcomes and see what kind of quick takes I have on what little we’ve learned so far. Remember there are 30 teams so I probably haven’t actually seen your team play beyond the highlights. I’m just glancing at stats and shooting from the hip.
LAFC 1 - 0 Minnesota United (xG: 1.1 - 0.8)
LAFC: They moved on from a lot of midfielders and forwards in the offseason. Will the new offense be effective or it be Bouanga against the other team?
It was a bit of a struggle, but the offense got the job done.
LAFC: Last season Giroud was on track to join the list of extremely famous but extremely disappointing designated players. After a full preseason, can he turn that around and be more effective?
He came off the bench with 11 minutes left and got one shot for 0.3 xG and five touches. I guess he’s being rested for the next CCC fixture?
Minnesota: They finished strong last season and beat Real Salt Lake in the playoffs. Most of the players are back, so can they continue that momentum?
Not a great start, but let’s give it a few more games before drawing any conclusions.
Minnesota: Tani Oluwaseyi went from 17th overall in the college draft to posting some of the league’s best attacking statistics in limited action last year. Was that a small sample flash in the pan, or can he pick up where he left off?
We’ll wait on this of course, but so far, 3 shots, 0.2 xG, 65 minutes. Only 17 touches.
FC Cincinnati 1 - 0 New York Red Bulls (1.8 - 1.1 xG)
Cincinnati: Cincinnati got off to a strong start in their midweek CCC match, but can they match the Red Bulls’ intensity on short rest?
Looks like it! Not much CCC hangover here.
Cincinnati: Of course everyone is going to be watching their new DPs, Evander and Denkey. If they are as good as hoped, this is a trophy contending team. Road games in Central America are no joke, but will this offense look as dominant as we expect against MLS competition?
They weren’t dominant, but 1.8 xG is slightly above average and Denkey got the goal. I think they’ll be fine with that.
Red Bulls: Are the Red Bulls still going to play with their famous intensity after bringing in some older players, like new DP forward Eric Choupo-Moting?
I didn’t watch this game but I see they attempted more passes than Cincinnati and completed a higher percentage of passes. Cincinnati can be very direct themselves, though, so let’s keep an eye on this.
Red Bulls: Will the Red Bulls recreate the form of their magical playoff run, centered around a hopefully healthy Emil Forsberg, or are they going to look more like they did in their poor run into the playoffs late last season?
They lost, but Cincinnati was both good last year and expected to be very good this year.
Atlanta United 3 - 2 CF Montréal (1.5 - 2.5 xG)
Atlanta: Other than maybe Miami, they have the most expensive frontline in MLS. Will it live up to the hype?
Can’t argue with the results here: three goals, a brace from Latte Lath, and assists from Saba and Almirón. It was a goal and half more than expected though, so let’s see if it continues.
Atlanta: Is the defense going to remain “decent” this season with the new DPs and Mateusz Klich all on the field?
Giving up 2.5 xG to a Montréal team that’s not supposed to be very good isn’t a great start.
CF Montréal: They have bet heavily on youth. Will that pay dividends or will the suffer from their lack of high-end talent?
2.5 xG seems like a good game, maybe just unlucky on defense?
Is the change of scenery going to unlock more production from Vrioni?
Definitely not yet; he was out with a groin injury.
Columbus Crew 4 - 2 Chicago Fire (2.4 - 1.8 xG)
Columbus: Columbus will probably replace Cucho when they can, but until that happens, can Diego Rossi carry the load as the offense’s remaining big star?
2 goals for Rossi: so far so good! I’d like to see it against a better team, but they have the Revolution and the Dynamo coming up…so…
Columbus: Was Columbus’ success over the past two years driven more by Cucho’s star talent or by Nancy’s system?
Jury’s still out but a good start for the Nancy side of this question.
Chicago: Will the many new players take a long time to adjust to Gregg Berhalter’s famously complex system of play, or can they be effective right out of the gate?
2 goals on 1.8 xG is a good start, but so far this is definitely not the impressive defense Berhalter’s USMNT had at their height.
Chicago: Is Hugo Cuypers primed for the sort of big year that Berhalter’s forwards often had with the Crew?
0.3 xG on 2 shots in a half…so not much so far.
DC United 2 - 2 Toronto FC (0.9 - 1.9 xG)
DC United: Christian Benteke won the Golden Boot last season, but he’s 34. Can he pick up where he left off, or is he going to be less effective this season due to age and the departure of Matuesz Klich?
His towering headed goal sure looked a lot like last year, but DC fans have to be worried he only got two shots. Both DC’s projected starting wingers were out with minor injuries, though.
DC United: DC spent money in the last two transfer windows bringing in new talent for its defense and goalkeeping, but will coach Troy Lesesne’s style of play still leave them too exposed?
Some ominous signs here. Toronto didn’t score off breaking the press, but it wasn’t for lack of chances.
Toronto: Bernardeschi has had his off-the-field issues, but he’s a dangerous attacker and works hard against the ball. Is he still motivated, and if so, does he have enough support around him?
Having watched this game, I’d say no, or at least, not yet. 1.9 xG is a bit flattering because there was a penalty mixed in there off a dumb foul during a very non-threatening moment.
Toronto: Can new coach Robin Fraser get more out of a roster that hasn’t really been reinforced since last year’s dismal campaign?
Apart from the awful turnover very early in the game that led to DC’s first goal (but they’re in very good company across MLS), I thought they looked well-coached and cohesive. Let’s see if that can continue.
Inter Miami 2 - 2 NYCFC (2.5 - 1.0 xG)
Miami: Messi went 90 minutes in the freezing cold on Wednesday. Is he going to go 90 again—as he often did last season—or will he allow the team to manage his minutes when he’s healthy?
He went 90 again even though they were down a man for most of the game. Suárez was subbed off at about sixty minutes, at least. Doesn’t seem like they’d have gotten a point out of this game without Messi on the field.
Miami: Does Miami’s new manager have any new wrinkles to help cope with the fact several starters can’t provide any meaningful energy on defense?
So far, not so good, but it was a weird game due to the red card.
NYCFC: They played Miami very tight last year, getting two 1-1 draws, including one against both Messi and Suárez. The cores of both teams are back and both are a year older: that’s bad for Miami and good for NYCFC. Can their defense hold Miami to one or zero goals again without DP centerback Thiago Martins, who’s injured?
They were so close to holding them to one goal…but no dice. At least they got another draw. I’m not going to check now but there can’t be many Eastern Conference teams Messi hasn’t beaten at this point.
NYCFC: Alonso Martinez had an amazing season last year and was statistically one of the league’s best attacking players. NYCFC badly needs him to repeat that, especially if it’s true they are selling Santi Rodriguez. Miami invested in some new players for their defense, but typically they are vulnerable, can Martinez get off to a quick start?
Martinez got the second goal, so that’s a good start. Santi Rodriguez didn’t play.
Orlando City 2 - 4 Philadelphia Union (2.4 - 1.8 xG)
Orlando: The front office has put a lot of faith in Marco Pašalić to jumpstart the offense despite what seems (to me, anyway) a distinctly so-so résumé. Will he reward their trust?
Bad game for the team, but a great first game for Marco Pašalić. I’m not admitting defeat yet but I’m impressed.
Orlando: Philly’s (presumably) pressing defense will be a good test for a modified midfield with Eduard Atuesta, can they play through the press and set up the attack?
Based on the 2.4 xG, seems like they did fine with the ball even if the scoreline was disappointing.
Philadelphia: We’re expecting a return to their most direct, car-crash soccer game model, but how will they look after moving on from Jim Curtin after so long?
Just ignore the xG and focus on the scoreline: great start. From the highlights the game seemed very open, not constricted like I would have expected.
Philadelphia: Sorry Philly fans, take from someone who followed DC United during the Freddy Adu seasons. This is going to be annoying all year, but…Cavan Sullivan! How much will he play, and is he the chosen one will he look like he belongs?
He was an unused sub despite Philly being up 4-1 by the 65th minute. Boo.
Austin FC 1 - 0 Sporting Kansas City (0.9 - 0.5 xG)
Austin: They poured money into fixing their poor offense with some big transfers. Will Uzuni and Vázquez provide the immediate impact their price tag suggests?
Uzuni didn’t play, but they didn’t need him this time. Vázquez went 90, 0.1 xG on three shots.
Austin: Their defense last season was good in terms of goals allowed, but it overperformed expected goals allowed by a good margin. Which stat is going to tell us more about what to expect from their defense this year?
Great start on that front, but…it’s Kansas City.
Kansas City: Can an attacker like Dejan Joveljić who played well for a good team produce the same results dropped into a rebuilding team?
He only played the second half, but had zero shots on only 13 touches.
Kansas City: It doesn’t seem like they’ve done enough to improve the defense, but maybe the switch to a new starting goalkeeper (John Pulskamp) will help?
He faced two shots on target and made one save. Let’s wait on this one.
Houston Dynamo 1 - 2 FC Dallas (1.2 - 2.1 xG)
Houston: How will Jack McGlynn fare as he takes over the keys to the offense from Héctor Herrera?
Quiet game statistically.
Houston: They had a great defense in 2024 and have brought pretty much all those players back, but can their new starting goalkeeper (Tarbell, I think) match the shotstopping numbers Steve Clark put up last year?
Not so far (-0.1 PSxG-GA), but it’s one game.
Dallas: Lucho: is he happy and motivated, or will he still be carrying some of the unhappiness that drove him out of Cincinnati?
79 minutes, zero shots, 0.1 xA. I don’t think I saw him at all in the game highlights.
Dallas: Are the big changes to the defense going to fix that phase of the game?
We’ll call one goal allowed on 1.2 xG a success, I suppose.
Nashville SC 0 - 0 New England Revolution (1.1 - 0.5 xG)
Nashville: Hany Mukhtar is still in his prime. Just a few years ago he was the league MVP, can he bounce back this season?
65 touches in 90 minutes, so he was involved. 0.2 xG on five shots and 0.3 xA. Hmm.
Nashville: Nashville didn’t finish strong last year after a coaching change, but with a full preseason, will BJ Callahan get better results?
New England is supposed to be better than last year, but a home draw isn’t a great outcome for Nashville.
New England: Carles Gil is a bit older than Hany Mukhtar but he’s also a former league MVP coming off a down year. Can the new players around him help him shine?
Not a lot of statistical shine in this game (1 shot, essentially no xG, and 0.1 xA).
New England: Leo Campana looked very good in limited action with Inter Miami, but Miami is such a weird team. Will he look as good in this very different situation?
No one really came out of this looking great for New England, but let’s see how they do next week against the Crew.
St. Louis City 0 - 0 Colorado Rapids (2.0 - 0.2 xG)
St. Louis: Marcel Hartel hit the ground running in eight games last season. With a full preseason, will he be the elite player St. Louis needs him to be?
0.4 xA for Hartel, not elite but not terrible either.
St. Louis: Since these are two high-energy, direct teams, will Colorado suffer more from CCC hangover than other teams?
I don’t know if my reasoning was right, but Colorado certainly didn’t put up a strong performance! St. Louis’ xG won’t help them in the standings, though.
Colorado: Colorado has brought back most of their good 2024 attack, plus some reinforcements, so is this the season Djordje Mihailovic steps into the ranks of the league’s elite players?
Maybe, but not today.
Colorado: Zach Steffan had very bad shotstopping statistics in the 2024 regular season. Is this a problem with him that’s going to continue, or will the changes to the defense in front of him help?
He crushed it this game, leading the league in shotstopping for the matchweek. Let’s see if he can keep it up!
San Jose Earthquakes 4 - 0 Real Salt Lake (2.1 - 1.6 xG)
San Jose: Cristian Arango starts the season with a game against his old team. He had two very good years with Real Salt Lake, but can he still be effective on a rebuilding team?
3 shots for 0.2 xG in 86 minutes. Turns out they didn’t need much from him, at least for this game.
San Jose: He’s done it before, but can Bruce Arena once again resuscitate a team with clever (and a bit idiosyncratic) veteran acquisitions?
Bruce, I was a fool to doubt you.
Real Salt Lake: They’ve had a lot of turnover from their offense, so there’s going to be a lot more weight on Diogo Gonçalves and young creator Diego Luna, can they step up?
Gonçalves only played 10 minutes. Luna was very involved (73 touches and five shots) but not terribly effective.
Real Salt Lake: Rafael Cabral is one of just a handful of new MLS starting goalkeepers in 2024. He seems to have a good defense in front of him, so can he post strong numbers?
Maybe, but he was in the negatives for this game.
Seattle Sounders 2 - 2 Charlotte FC (1.8 - 0.5 xG)
Seattle: They tripled down on using domestic players in the attack, adding Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola to go with longstanding Sounder Jordan Morris. They got the job done midweek, but how will the attack look against what we expect to be a strong Charlotte defense?
They rested both Ferreira and Arriola (they played 11 and 30 minutes respectively) but Jordan Morris picked up the slack and scored a brace.
Seattle: The Sounders were very good last year and finished with their customary strong performance in the regular season, but it’s a lot easier to win trophies with a truly elite DP. Will Pedro de la Vega take a step forward—maybe several steps forward—to help provide that?
He played four minutes, so not tonight.
Charlotte: Wilfried Zaha ought to still be a devastating attacker in MLS, but is he motivated and bought in to what Charlotte are doing?
Zaha missed the game to be with his expecting wife.
Charlotte: Their defense was great last year, but will efforts to improve the offense come at a cost to that solidity?
Don’t know yet, but this was not a great defensive performance!
Portland Timbers 1 - 4 Vancouver Whitecaps (0.7 - 2.8 xG)
Portland: David da Costa probably won’t have his visa yet and Jonathan Rodriguez is out with an injury. Can Portland find a way to win without DPs against a Whitecaps team that’s coming off a very tough midweek road loss in Costa Rica?
Shockingly, David da Costa actually did get his visa and played the second half. But an 11th minute red card will make even good teams struggle.
Portland: It’s hard to imagine their offense will be as good this year without Evander, so the defense probably needs to improve to keep them in the playoffs. Will the additions they’ve made there raise the level?
Not if Kemal Miller gets sent off in the 11th minute.
Vancouver: After poor run-in and then a really rough offseason, can their new coach Jesper Sørensen help them improve despite a roster that pundits think hasn’t really improved on overall talent?
The midweek loss wasn’t ideal but this is a great start to the regular season!
Vancouver: CCC hangover impacts even elite teams. Vancouver isn’t elite, but Portland isn’t at full strength, so can Vancouver take advantage?
When I said Portland wouldn’t be at full strength, I didn’t think I meant they’d be down a man, but apparently this was a prophecy. Still, we’ve all seen games where the team down a man looks like the better team, so Vancouver still did well to win the game despite their short rest.
LA Galaxy 0 - 2 San Diego FC (0.8 - 1.9 xG)
LA Galaxy: LA are back after winning MLS Cup, but they’re missing two DPs to injury (Puig for months, Paintsil for several weeks). Can veteran Diego Fagúndez and new arrival Christian Ramirez keep the offense humming?
Journeyman forward Miguel Berry led the Galaxy in xG with 0.3, so…that’s not great.
LA Galaxy: Marco Reus didn’t play a ton of minutes last year. Does he have enough left in the tank at age 35 to be the focus of the team while Puig recovers?
He played 71 minutes in this game, for whatever that was worth.
San Diego: MLS expansion teams often take several games to score a goal, but San Diego has invested more in attack than defense. Can that attack produce right away against a good team?
Yes, if the other team passes the ball to them and then throws everyone forward at the end of the game. Let’s see how they do next week.
San Diego: Their coach says he wants to play beautiful, possession-based soccer. Are they going to be able to execute this right away or do they need more time to get in sync?
The counterattack at the end of the game was beautiful, but they also out-possessed the Galaxy. Score one for Varas.