A big part of the project at this newsletter is finding ways to distinguish MLS teams from each other. Some of that is who is good and who is bad, of course, but in some ways what’s even better is finding stylistic differences. Seeing different ideas of how to play clashing on the field is fun.
It’s not easy to get this out of public statistics, but in my preseason article assessing teams in 2024, I pulled out three things: the minutes-adjusted team age (which is more roster style than playing style, admittedly), how direct or patiently they play (measured by average number of passes attempted), and how often they tried to build from the back (based on goal kick launch percentage).
All but two MLS teams have played six games now, so I thought it was a good time to check in and see how they’re doing in each of these measures and how they compare to 2024.
CF Montréal was one of the youngest teams in 2024, but so far this season they are a huge outlier. And they’ll probably get even younger if Jalen Neal (not yet 22) gets healthy and joins the starting lineup!
Atlanta United and Charlotte FC aren’t quite so far from the average, but they’re still noticeably older than other MLS teams.
A quick look at some of the league’s best teams doesn’t show all that much correlation between outcomes and age. There are five teams above 11 points. Inter Miami is older, as you’d expect, and so is Austin FC, but the Philadelphia Union and the Vancouver Whitecaps are younger. Columbus Crew are just a touch younger than average.
What’s even more interesting is looking at how this has changed since 2024:
The New York Red Bulls made by far the biggest change, going from one of the youngest teams to being pretty close to average as part of what I think has been a major change in their roster and playing philosophy.
Atlanta and Charlotte also got a lot older. Sporting Kansas City and DC United got younger, but it hasn’t helped them much in the standings. The Chicago Fire are younger and so far are the standout among the big-rebuild teams.
I haven’t gone back to previous seasons to confirm it, but I speculate that as the season continues and temperatures rise, older teams might be hit harder by injuries and fatigue. The rest of the league will be happy to have any reason to hope against Miami right now. And maybe there’s at least a little hope for CF Montréal? Hmm. Really Chicago seems like they’re in a better position to capitalize on this effect—if it exists.
This time there are two clear outliers. Minnesota United is attempting vastly fewer passes than anyone else. And San Diego FC is living up to their promise before the season of playing possession soccer. They’re both on 11 points after six games, so these two very different ways to play are both capable of producing points.
This was been a pretty stable measure from year to year, as we can see looking at the deltas:
I think there’s a mix of intentional and unintentional changes here. Seattle might be a little more aggressive if Paul Arriola hadn’t been lost to injury, for example, and I suspect that Houston would rather have more of the ball again since they are trying to build around Jack McGlynn. On the other hand, I think the New York Red Bulls and DC United have both purposefully moved away from their super-direct play last year.
Minnesota was already quite direct last season, but this season has taken it to a new level. Maybe it’s just the sample size?
San Diego FC and Minnesota United are at the top and bottom again. As with last season’s numbers, there’s a lot of overlap here with the previous charts. Direct teams also tend to kick long, but it’s not a complete match. It’s possible this more perfectly reflects intentionality, since a team that wants to possess might just get played off the field and not manage to attempt many passes, but for goal kicks there’s always a choice.
Seattle is near average here, for example, even though they’re very patient with the ball. Inter Miami and CF Montréal are both much higher here than on the passes attempted chart.
You might notice most of the arrows point to the right here. For the previous two measures, the average in 2024 was very close to 2025, but here there’s been a pretty big change, going from 56.3% short goal kicks to 65.5%. San Diego FC helped raise the average by entering the league and immediately leading it in this measure, kicking short more than 90% of the time. Even without them, however, the 2025 average is 64.6%, so there’s been a real shift here.
Unless this is actually normal? One possibility I didn’t have time to check is that for some reason teams kick short more often in the early games of the season and so this will settle down towards the 2024 number as time goes on. Maybe when players are tired, coaches (or the players themselves) save energy by kicking long? Or maybe as coaches start fearing for their jobs they start playing more conservatively and try to grind out wins?
Anyway, the biggest change here is that DC United used to be the big outlier, heavily reliant on Christian Benteke’s aerial prowess to advance the ball. He’s still winning lots of aerial duels, but so far they are now going short almost half the time. That’s way more than last season, but still puts them third from the bottom as teams like the New York Red Bulls, the Philadelphia Union, the Chicago Fire, and the Vancouver Whitecaps all greatly increased their rate of playing short.
Minnesota United and FC Dallas are fighting the trend and have made the biggest moves in the other direction. They’re both doing well, so one wonders: maybe they’re on to something? But Chicago has as many points as Minnesota, and Philadelphia and Vancouver are doing even better.
That’s it for today. I’ll be back soon with week 7 previews.